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Introduction

1.1 Background

The universe is undergoing a wide group of global changes, like improvements in population density, climate, resource use, land employ, biodiversity, and urbanization and globalization functions. Climate change is among the drivers of global transformation, which has over time been received strong emphasis by scientists, policy-makers and leaders of the environment (Vitousek, 1994). At present climate change is considered as emerging global danger that not merely induces physical environmental impacts but also influences the social structures, economic factors and the entire development process (Birkmann, 2010). This emerging threat has introduced a new social community named ‘Climate Refugee’ especially for the affected developing nations. The UN currently states that more refugees happen to be displaced by environmental catastrophes than wars, and the amount of the climate refugee is more than 25 million which is likely to become 50 million in coming decades (Meyers, 2002). Out of these 25 million persons about 10 million are from Africa who will be directly damaged by the climate modification via droughts. The next largest group is certainly from coastal regions of Asian countries, who are afflicted by healthy disasters like cyclones, storm surges, floods, salinity and droughts (Anon, 2010).

The cumulative ramifications of climate change exacerbate food and water insecurity, lack of biodiversity and ecosystem, environmental degradation and individual insecurity through cultural conflict, political conflict and violence in the influenced developing countries (Adger and Kelly, 1999). Hence, the socioeconomic structures will be undermined in these countries where the affected people are compelled to switch over occupations for livelihood. These are the people who can no longer ensure a secured livelihood in their origin of dwelling (Mayers, 2002). As well as climate change effects, inhabitants pressure trouble and hardcore poverty include induced a notable change in the whole economic structure of these countries. As a result, these countries are suffered from persistent socio-economic inequality and public instability (Barnett, 2007).

Bangladesh often makes top news worldwide. However, unlike most other countries, it isn’t because of politics but also for devastating natural catastrophes causing huge death tolls and significant destruction. This South Asian LDC, since her independence in 1971, has got been struggling with a number of socioeconomic and socio-political problems such as- rapid populace development, poverty, illiteracy, gender disparity, slow financial expansion, institutional inertia, political instability, violence etc. But from last 2 decades she started fighting a fresh problem- the adverse effects of climate modification in the form of natural disasters (Miliband, 2009). Over the last 2 decades these disasters have grown to be frequent phenomena contributed miserable suffering to an incredible number of inhabitants who are susceptible to the climatic shocks (GoB, 2005). Quite simply, climate risk for Bangladesh is relatively higher than most other countries of the environment. The Global Environment Risk Index made by Germanwatch demonstrates Bangladesh is at top of the ranking of most damaged countries by climatic serious events over the last two decades. Table 1.1 shows the overall ranking created by Germanwatch.

Table 1.1 Very long term Weather Risk Index (CRI) for some afflicted countries for period 1990-2008

CRI

1990-2008

Country

CRI Score

Death toll*

Deaths/thousand*

Total looses in million US$ PPP*

Losses per GDP in %*

1

Bangladesh

8.00

8,241

6.27

2,189

1.81

2

Myanmar

8.25

4,522

9.60

707

2.55

3

Honduras

12.00

340

5.56

660

3.37

4

Vietnam

18.83

466

0.64

1,525

1.31

5

Nicaragua

21.00

164

3.37

211

2.03

6

Haiti

22.83

335

4.58

95

1.08

7

India

25.83

3,255

0.33

6,132

0.38

8

Dominican Republic

27.58

222

2.93

191

0.45

9

Philippines

27.67

799

1.11

544

0.30

10

China

28.58

2,023

0.17

25,961

0.78

* Annual

Source: Germanwatch, 2010

that the most typical disasters will be flood and cyclone. Recent IPCC evaluation studies (TAR, 2001 and AR4, 2007) also reveal that during the last two decades both of the above-mentioned disaster-events have grown to be more repeated and devastating for Bangladesh. It really is learnt from IPCC studies that 5-10% upsurge in wind speed is quite likOn basis of above-mentioned table, it really is easy to apprehend why Bangladesh was cited countless occasions in COP15 held in Copenhagen in ’09 2009. At present this country is more likely to exposed towards climatic extreme events than almost all of the countries on the planet (UNFCCC, 2009). These occurrences, in kind of natural disasters range between ravaging cyclones to devastating floods (Muhammad, 2007). Pursuing Table 1.2 has an overall idea on most devastating disasters happened in Bangladesh since early twentieth century. This table shows

Table 1.2 Disaster-log in Bangladesh since early 1900s

Disasters

Time

Disasters

Time

Epidemic

1918

Cyclone

24-5-1985

Drought

1943

Flood

22-7-1987

Cyclone

October 1942

Flood

August 1987

Cyclone

28-5-1963

Flood

June 1988

Cyclone

May 1965

Cyclone

29-4-1991

Cyclone

June 1965

Cyclone

15-5-1995

Flood

July 1968

Flood

5-7-1998

Cyclone

12-11-1970

Flood

September 2000

Flood

July 1974

Flood

20-6-2004

Drought

July 1983

Cyclone

15-11-2007

Flood

May 1984

Cyclone

27-05-2009

Source: EMDAT

likely during the cyclone-season in Bangladesh that could eventually improve storm surge and coastal flooding, while 10-20% rises of wind intensity can cause floods both in coastline and inlands as the cyclone makes terrain fall (Agarwala, 2003). It has been assessed that an rise of 2° C temp and a 0.3 m sea level go up would result in a cyclone in the costal belt of Bangladesh as strong as cyclone of 1991; furthermore, such a cyclone will probably bring about a 1.5 m larger storm surge that may inundate 20% more territory than 1991 cyclone (Ali, 1996). The newest example of costal cyclone as possible effect of climate modification is usually SIDR which battered the coastal belt in Bangladesh on 15th November 2007. The wind speed was about 220 to 240 km/hour and at least 3,113 persons were known dead and more than 10,000 were missing; the damage because of this disaster had been around US$ 2.3 million (EMDAT, 2009). The intensity of SIDR was not significantly less than the 1991 cyclone in a few portion of the coastal areas and the impression was a lot more than that. Furthermore, on 27th Might 2009, another devastating cyclone named AILA strike the South-western component of Bangladesh and West Bengal of India, which exacerbated the suffering for the afflicted persons in Bangladesh; although an early warning system allowed the evacuation of an estimated 2.7 million persons to higher ground and cyclone shelter-homes (BBC, 2009). It really is predicted a single meter surge of sea level would inundate a lot more than 18% of the coastal belt and can affect 11% of the full total country’s human population. Two-third of the whole country is only 10 m above the ocean level; therefore, about 13 million of the total population may very well to be homeless and become environmental refugees as the victim of climate changing method (Huq et al, 1999). Khulna and Barisal, the costal divisions of Bangladesh are comparatively disaster-prone, where about 3.2 million people are in risk and about one-eighth of the country’s agricultural lands and a lot more than 8,000 communication networks are likely to be affected because of climate change effects (Parvin, 2010).

1.2 Affirmation of the problem

About 1 / 3 of the territory of Bangladesh is definitely delimited as coastal areas which will be combined of distinctive opportunities, diversified threats and vulnerabilities (HarunOrRashid, 2009). For the reason that coastal areas have got different geo-physical and environmental attributes that differentiate the coastal zone from remaining country. These distinctive features will be interplay of tidal regime, salinity in soil and water, cyclone and storm surge; with financial and social implications on the population (PDO-ICZMP, 2003). Therefore, such identical geo-physical structure has introduced a completely different livelihood design, where people are involved with selected coastal economical activities like fishing, salt creation, fry collection from the sea and source collection from the adjacent mangrove forest (Ahmed, 2003, Islam, 2004).

Although the coastal areas will be much more fertile how to write an argumentative research paper land for agricultural development, these areas are relatively income-poor compared to the rest of the country. Normal per capita GDP (at current market cost) in the coastal zone was US$ 402 in 2008, compared to US$ 621 for your country typically (GoB, 2009; CDP, 2009). There are ten distinct ethnic communities

living in the coastal zones plus they have complete numerous cultures and livelihood patterns. Combined with the nontribal people, those ethnic expository essays communities entirely be based upon the coastal natural solutions for his or her livelihood (Kamal, 2001). Their despair and goal, plight and struggle, vulnerability and resilience happen to be uniquely revolved round in an intricate ecological and interpersonal setting which make their livelihoods distinctive from other parts of the united states to a considerable extent.

The Federal government of Bangladesh has recently recognized coastal zone as areas of enormous potentials. In contrast, these areas are lagging behind in socio-economic production and susceptible to different normal disasters and environmental degradation (Sevaraju, 2006). For a LDC like Bangladesh where in fact the climate change takes a shape of natural disaster not only affects the socio-economic condition of coastal communities but likewise hinders obtaining an optimal GDP growth (ADPC, 2007). Climate change poses a significant threat for Bangladesh, particularly the projected climate change effects include sea level go up, higher temperature, enhanced monsoon precipitation and run-off, potentially reduced dried up season precipitation and upsurge in cyclone intensity in this area (Agrawala, 2003). Those threats would induce major impediments to the socioeconomic creation of Bangladesh including coastal areas. A subjective rank of key climate change effects for coastal Bangladesh identifies cyclone and ocean level rise to be of the best priority regarding intensity, certainty and urgency of affect (Parvin, 2009).

National Adaptation Method of Action (NAPA) and various other scholars have identified the coastal areas of Bangladesh among the most affected areas on the globe because of the threats of climate modification effects (GoB 2005). In the southwestern part of Bangladesh the physical isolation of coastal communities makes them highly resource-dependent obtainable around the coastline and adjacent mangrove forest (the Sundarbans), which reduces their opportunities to access to alternative livelihoods certainly. These hindrances make the coastal communities susceptible to any disruption, specifically to natural catestrophes. Consequently, households in coastal communities suffer from imbalance of social and economic powers, insufficient participation in decision-making, limited or zero asset possession, and laws and regulations influencing people’s capability to use assets or access to information (Pomeroy et al., 2006).

1.3 Justification of the study

There are only a few number of studies have already been conducted on coastal Bangladesh. These studies will be primarily conducted on hazard warning and evacuation system (Paul and Dutt, 2010), health security because of disaster (Ray-Bennet et al., 2010), physical accidental injuries during cyclones (Paul, 2009), and coastal hazards and community-coping method (Parvin, 2009). So, almost all of these studies focused on the coping and adaptation mechanisms in coastal areas. However, we barely find any review that addressed the socioeconomic vulnerability in localized degree of coastal zone, especially in the southwestern component of Bangladesh. Consequently, without determining local-level vulnerability structure the recommended coping or adaptation system may very well be least effective in reality. In this research we attempt to fill up the data gap by determining quantitative local-level vulnerability initially; then we search for optimal adaptation options predicated on empirical marriage between vulnerability and essential socioeconomic parameters. We picked Koyra upazila [1] as our research area, which one of the most disaster-prone areas in southwestern coastal area of Bangladesh.

1.4 Research questions and objectives of the study

Considering all of the above-mentioned details, we proceed with the discovery of logical answers of pursuing research questions;

What is the symptom of climate switch in the study area?

Which major climatic factors constitute for climate switch here?

Which elements exacerbate such vulnerability? Will there be any single factor or multiple factors?

What is the aspect and magnitude of romantic relationship between this vulnerability and socioeconomic factors in the study area?

What are the possible adaptation options with regards to convenience of the vulnerable households in research area?

The above-mentioned research issues are addressed by the study objectives. Hence, the main study objectives are;

To understand and figure out the manifestation of weather change in the study area,

To quantify socioeconomic vulnerability and evaluate the type and magnitude of the partnership between vulnerability and key socioeconomic parameters of the analysis area, and

To identify and advise the perfect adaptation options in terms of capacity of households in the analysis place while addressing socioeconomic vulnerability.

1.5 Outline of the study

This study contains nine chapters. Let us own a glimpse at the quick contents of all chapters chronologically.

Chapter one is introduction. It provides a standard scenario on Bangladesh’s status in relations with climate change effects. We briefly discuss about the challenge statement and then we identify the conceivable knowledge gap of socioeconomic vulnerability in the analysis spot. We conclude this chapter by mentioning a variety of research issues, which are addressed by three primary objectives of the study.

In Chapter two all of us give attention to the theoretical backdrop and theoretical framework because of this study. Under theoretical history we mention and briefly talk about relevant literatures relative to our study objectives. Then simply we depict the theoretical framework because of this study, which is used for quantifying socioeconomic vulnerability of the analysis area.

We mention about the methodology of the analysis in Chapter three. In this chapter we give attention to types of research that we have used in this study. Then in accordance with study objectives we mention associated info type, collection methods and data sources. We also mention the sampling method and sampling size. The building of vulnerability index is certainly reviewed in this chapter. Finally we conclude by mentioning the impediments those we confronted while accomplishing this study.

Chapter four deals with the description of research region Koyra. We mention essential information about geographical site, administration, topographic, physiographic and socioeconomic condition. We include a ‘Disaster Calendar’ for our research area that we created by collecting information from households.

Chapter five deals with identification of climate modification effects and quantification of socioeconomic vulnerability at localized level of study spot. In this we present possible climate change effects in the analysis area predicated on empirical data and Emphasis Group Discussion (FGD) findings. Later on we quantify vulnerability for each union [2] through the use of the Vulnerability Index. We demonstrate union-wise vulnerability by using maps.

Once we’ve quantified vulnerability, we execute a variety of econometric analyses in Chapter six as a way to show marriage between vulnerability and essential socioeconomic parameters of review area. We mention the important results from analyses in two different tables. We likewise put brief explanation of styles and variables found in this study.

In Chapter seven we discuss the important findings obtained from unit analyses in elaborated method. Here we as well mention the possible reasons for the nature and extent of romance between vulnerability and socioeconomic parameters of study area. At the end of this chapter we examine the regularity of vulnerability index by applying an alternative procedure. Subsequent regression coefficients of alternative approach are likewise tested and weighed against the old model benefits.

Based on the outcomes of relationship pointed out in chapter six and seven; we recommend the perfect adaptation options for the affected people through brief explanation in Chapter eight. We also draw handful of our tips on basis of correlation between different variables. The existing adaptation options in analysis area are also pointed out in Chapter eight.

We conclude this analysis in Chapter nine. We summarize significant findings from this research in a nut shell. Besides, we focus on shortcomings of the procedure we utilized to quantify vulnerability. In great we mention the issues that we did not address in this study where further research could be conducted.

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